Thursday, November 19, 2015
EUR/USD price action has been choppy, with positive bullish bias for the day on continued dollar weakness despite the slightly decent Weekly Unemployment Claims (121K), and better than expected Philly Fed MFG Index (1.9) report. For today the euro rallied 108 pips in comparison to the US dollar, moving from the session low at 1.0656 to the session high at 1.0764. The upside momentum in EUR/USD can be attributed to the last FOMC Meeting minutes, which indicated that most members agreed that conditions appear to be right for an interest rate hike, but the way they signal this to the market should be approached with caution.
At 11:30 GMT, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting minutes were published which expressed a more dovish tone in comparison to yesterday's slightly Hawkish FED FOMC Minutes. This reinforces the idea that the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve are pursuing divergent paths regarding monetary policy. The ECB Minutes were published saying that there was a case made at the previous meeting for more stimulus, and easing measures having gained much traction. It also showed some members believe deflation risks are still relevant and they must re-examine degree of policy accommodation in December and be ready to act if necessary.
In today's webinar, we discussed intra-day chart behavior in EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD, as well as looked for opportunities to enter the market.
Thursday, August 27, 2015
The EUR/USD pair traded lower in negative territory, as the dollar bulls begin to dominate the currency market landscape. Today’s US Fundamental data reported 2nd Quarter GDP showing the economy expanded by 3.7% on an annual basis, which is greater than the market forecast of only 2.3% annualized growth for the second quarter. The Euro slid 162 pips in comparison to the greenback, falling from the session high at 1.1365 to the session low at 1.1203, which is serving as psychological support for the common currency.
EUR/USD is currently in a corrective phase after finding key support at the 1.1200 psychological zone, and it appears to be well-supported ahead of the market close. If price continues to hold this support, then this will signal the presence of strong demand at this level, and we may see a correction up to the 1.1263/64 level, which is the 38.6% fibonacci retracement level of today’s sell-off, and this week’s pivot point level. The common currency is now consolidating at 1.1251, and may trade within a tight range into today’s market close.