Thursday, March 1, 2012
We began today's webinar by discussing the outcome of yesterday's 529 Billion euro take-up of the second LTRO by the ECB and its immediate effect on the EUR/USD pair. Once the LTRO announcement was released, we saw an initial move lower in the EUR/USD, and in the later morning, it tried to recover a little, but towards the 10:00 EST hour, we saw the EUR/USD decline another leg lower at the onset of FED chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress. Bernanke mentioned that although we've seen improvement in the US labor market, it is far from normal. The US recovery is even & modest, but not strong enough to remove his accomodative stance. We also had strong economic data out of the US that supported more dollar strength. Revised GDP data for the 4th quarter was reported at 3.0% opposed to the 2.8% in January. We also had some strong Chicago PMI data.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
During today's webinar, we briefly discussed what traders should expect to happen in the currency market during tomorrow's 3-yr LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) performed by the European Central Bank. On tomorrow, the ECB will be allowing Eurozone Banks to borrow an unlimited amount of money at a low interest rate of 1.00% for a 3 year time period. This operation was done to provide greater stability to the banking sector and with the hope that excess liquidity will encourage financial institutions to invest in peripheral sovereign debt for the purpose of bringing their borrowing costs lower. Many experts are still uncertain about the effects of this 2nd 3-yr LTRO and whether it will cause an increase in risk appetite or dampen risk sentiment. Some investors have chosen to sit on the sideline ahead of the major announcement and this is the reason for today's light trading volume.