Thursday, May 3, 2012
For the past two days, the euro had fallen sharply against the dollar and other major currencies after a series of poor data prints from the Eurozone and the United States began to elevate concerns about global growth prospects. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.9 vs. the 46.0 consensus, and regional readings in the peripheral nations were more concerning, with some of the components showing sharp drops in data. But, the real push towards risk aversion came after the release of the U.S. ADP employment report for April, which showed only a 119,000 increase in private sector jobs, compared to expectations for a 175,000 rise in jobs. Since the ADP report is widely considered a precursor to Friday's Non-Farm payrolls report, this poor reading leaves analysts unsure about what to expect on Friday.
Earlier today, the ECB decided to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 1.00% with no plans to adjust monetary policy or apply standardnon-standard measures. During the ECB press conference, we began to see the EUR/USD pair rally after breaking below the 1.3100 handle. Draghi's statements sounded a bit more hawkish which was unexpected considering the poor PMI & unemployment numbers.
The US Services sector also disappoints as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI falls to a 6-month low for the month of April to 53.5, which was below the forecasted 55.5 and lower than the previous month's number of 56.0. Although a reading above 50.0 indicates the Services Sector is generally expanding, it is not growing at a pace consistent with analysts forecasts. This caused the EUR/USD to climb higher on USD weakness and equities began to slide on fears that the US economic recovery may be running out of steam.
In today's V.I.P. webinar, we briefly discuss the current price behavior in the EUR/USD pair and we also place a few live trades using the Slumdog Forex trading system.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Today, we are witnessing more dollar strength across multiple currency crosses and flight to safety in the EUR/USD as concerns over the political gridlock in Greece & possible risk of contagion continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. The EUR/USD pair fell 109 pips from the session high at 1.2935 to the session low at 1.2826, where it found support.
In today's technical analysis video, we will briefly explain the price action in the EUR/USD pair and identify common areas of support & resistance for potential trade entries.