Friday, May 17, 2013
The forex market is closing the trading week with another rally in the greenback as speculation over an imminent reduction of QE3 continue to support the dollar. Prior to the opening of the NY trading session, there was market chatter that the ECB was considering the possibility of a negative deposit rate so the common currency began to weaken and sell off at the 1.2885-90 resistance level. Later, The US Dollar Index or DXY, broke above it's 2012 high of 84.10, which created broad dollar gains across multiple currency crosses. This was the catalyst that initiated the deeper selloff in the EUR/USD pair. Once the EUR/USD broke through the 1.2840 support (May 15th low), stops were triggered and shorts were added to send price to the 1.2800 psychological level where price eventually found support at 1.2796.
In today's V.I.P. trading webinar, we discuss price action in the EUR/USD and NZD/USD, and look for opportunities to place orders in the market using the Slumdog Forex Trading System.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Earlier in today's trading session, the EUR/USD continued it's whipsaw behavior as headlines from both signs of the pond (US & Eurozone) kept the common currency locked within a range. German ZEW numbers basically came in unchanged at 36.4 for May, when last month's number was only 36.3. This failure to beat the forecast of 38.2 did not change investor sentiment since the Eurozone Industrial Production number beat expectations at 1.0%, which neutralized the weak Zew reading. However, risk sentiment eventually leaned in favor of the greenback as it benefited from both safe haven flows and improving US fundamentals that caused investors to search for yield in equities. The DXY or USD Index rallied, along with global equities and US Treasury yields. This risk appetite was created despite the rumors of a potential tapering off of QE by the FED. The EUR/USD pair fell 98 pips from its session high at 1.3029 to a session low of 1.2931 where price found support at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level of the rally starting April 4th at 1.2740 to the May 1st High at 1.3243. Most of the dollar-demoninated crosses saw USD strength including the USD/JPY which broke above the 102.00 resistance.
Later in the trading session, David Tepper, who is the hedge fund manager at Appaloosa Management, stated in an interview that he is definitely remaining bullish on equities and this was the final catalyst that improved risk sentiment for the day and we continued to see USD strength for the remainder of today's trading session.