Tuesday, May 22, 2012
For the past two trading days, the EUR/USD pair had been in a mild recovery rally, over hopes that Euro zone leaders will move more closely towards stimulating growth, rather than pushing austerity. However, as for today, the pair had found resistance at 1.2820 and price is now falling due to euro weakness, as it pares some of its gains from yesterday. The instrument had fallen about 82 pips to support at 1.2740, and now price appears to want to retest the recent highs after the Existing Home Sales numbers were reported to come in at expectation, up 3.4% from April to an annual rate of 4.62 million. The market could be interpreting this modest increase in home sales, as a sign that the US Housing Market is starting to turn around.
At tomorrow's EU Summit, EU policymakers will be discussing whether a common Eurobond is necessary for the monetary union. France's president Hollande vows to push for the creation of Eurobonds as he believes Eurozone debt should be mutually distributed & shared among the 17-nation bloc, as a solution to the sovereign debt crisis. Germany, Netherlands, & Finland are strongly against this action. This conflict has downplayed any hopes of a concrete plan or solution to come out of tomorrow's EU summit.
We also heard news that the OECD, Organization For Economic Cooperation & Development, had slashed its growth forecast for the entire Eurozone, and they are encouraging the ECB to adopt a more looseraccomodative monetary policy.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Failure of Greek leaders to come to an agreement on a coalition government has contributed to massive risk aversion in not only the EUR/USD pair, but across multiple asset classes. Within a 24 hour period, the pair had fallen about ~190 pips from a high of 1.2869 on yesterday to today's low of 1.2681. Market participants are now fearing the likelihood of a Greek exit from the Eurozone and this has caused spreads between the 10-YR Spanish & 10-YR German Bund to widen to record levels. On today, the EUR/USD is pushing higher in a corrective pattern due to short covering, brought on by good news coming out of the Eurozone. The Eurozone Trade Balance came in at a surplus, Core CPI numbers were below their inflation target of 2.00%, and the auction for the German 10-Yr paper had a successful take up rate, despite the low yields.
In today's V.I.P. webinar, we discussed the current price behavior in the EUR/USD pair and looked for opportunities to place a live trade using the Slumdog Forex trading system.